Green Plains Renewable Stock Performance

GPRE Stock  USD 13.70  0.22  1.58%   
On a scale of 0 to 100, Green Plains holds a performance score of 12. The company retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of 1.32, which attests to a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Green Plains will likely underperform. Please check Green Plains' information ratio, downside variance, day median price, as well as the relationship between the treynor ratio and kurtosis , to make a quick decision on whether Green Plains' current trending patterns will revert.

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Good

 
Weak
 
Strong
Compared to the overall equity markets, risk-adjusted returns on investments in Green Plains Renewable are ranked lower than 12 (%) of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. In spite of rather unsteady basic indicators, Green Plains exhibited solid returns over the last few months and may actually be approaching a breakup point. ...more

Actual Historical Performance (%)

One Day Return
(1.58)
Five Day Return
5.3
Year To Date Return
33.27
Ten Year Return
(0.58)
All Time Return
(59.10)
Dividend Date
2019-06-14
Ex Dividend Date
2019-05-23
1
Disposition of 636 shares by Phil Boggs of Green Plains at 5.16 subject to Rule 16b-3
12/05/2025
2
Acquisition by James Herbert of 7685 shares of Green Plains at 9.76 subject to Rule 16b-3
12/18/2025
3
Disposition of 34906 shares by Mapes Michelle of Green Plains at 9.8 subject to Rule 16b-3
01/07/2026
4
Green Plains Expands Leadership Team with Ryan Loneman as General Counsel
01/12/2026
5
Insider Trading
01/16/2026
6
Is the Pekin Segment the Anchor of Alto Ingredients Growth Strategy
01/22/2026
7
Green Plains Celanese Critical Comparison
01/30/2026
8
Biofuels Global Markets Report 2025 Revenue Data for 2024, Estimates for 2025, 2029 Forecasts, and CAGRs Projection Through 2030 Featuring Key Players - ADM, Ca...
02/04/2026
9
Green Plains Renewable Energy Q4 Earnings Surpass Estimates
02/05/2026
10
Green Plains Trading 11.3 percent Higher on Earnings Beat
02/06/2026
11
Green Plains Leans On CCS Tax Credits To Rework Earnings And Debt
02/13/2026
Begin Period Cash Flow209.4 M
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities162.1 M

Green Plains Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest  1,009  in Green Plains Renewable on November 16, 2025 and sell it today you would earn a total of  361.00  from holding Green Plains Renewable or generate 35.78% return on investment over 90 days. Green Plains Renewable is currently generating 0.5616% in daily expected returns and assumes 3.4666% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. In different words, 31% of stocks are less volatile than Green, and 89% of all traded equity instruments are projected to make higher returns than the company over the 90 days investment horizon.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Green Plains is expected to generate 4.5 times more return on investment than the market. However, the company is 4.5 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about 0.16 of its potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.13 per unit of risk.

Green Plains Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The tendency of Green Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 13.70 90 days 13.70 
roughly 2.13
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Green Plains to move above the current price in 90 days from now is roughly 2.13 (This Green Plains Renewable probability density function shows the probability of Green Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.32 . This usually indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Green Plains will likely underperform. Additionally Green Plains Renewable has an alpha of 0.4847, implying that it can generate a 0.48 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Green Plains Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Green Plains

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Green Plains Renewable. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
10.0113.4816.95
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
10.0413.5116.98
Details
8 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
12.7414.0015.54
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-0.13-0.07-0.01
Details

Green Plains Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Green Plains is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Green Plains' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Green Plains Renewable, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Green Plains within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.48
β
Beta against Dow Jones1.32
σ
Overall volatility
1.43
Ir
Information ratio 0.14

Green Plains Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Green Plains for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Green Plains Renewable can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Green Plains appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 2.09 B. Net Loss for the year was (121 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 136.93 M.
Green Plains has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 97.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from simplywall.st: Green Plains Leans On CCS Tax Credits To Rework Earnings And Debt

Green Plains Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Green Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Green Plains' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Green Plains' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding67.5 M
Cash And Short Term Investments182.3 M

Green Plains Fundamentals Growth

Green Stock prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of Green Plains, and Green Plains fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on Green Stock performance.

About Green Plains Performance

By analyzing Green Plains' fundamental ratios, stakeholders can gain valuable insights into Green Plains' financial health, operational efficiency, and overall profitability, helping them make informed investment and management decisions. For instance, if Green Plains has a high ROA and ROE, it suggests that the company is efficiently using its assets and equity to generate substantial profits, making it an attractive investment. Conversely, if Green Plains has a low ROA and ROE, it may indicate underlying issues in asset and equity management, signaling a need for operational improvements.
Last ReportedProjected for Next Year
Days Of Inventory On Hand 26.33  49.28 
Return On Tangible Assets(0.08)(0.07)
Return On Capital Employed(0.06)(0.06)
Return On Assets(0.08)(0.07)
Return On Equity(0.16)(0.15)

Things to note about Green Plains Renewable performance evaluation

Checking the ongoing alerts about Green Plains for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Stock alerts and notifications screener for Green Plains Renewable help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Green Plains appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 2.09 B. Net Loss for the year was (121 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 136.93 M.
Green Plains has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 97.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from simplywall.st: Green Plains Leans On CCS Tax Credits To Rework Earnings And Debt
Evaluating Green Plains' performance can involve analyzing a variety of financial metrics and factors. Some of the key considerations to evaluate Green Plains' stock performance include:
  • Analyzing Green Plains' financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
  • Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether Green Plains' stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
  • Examining Green Plains' industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
  • Evaluating Green Plains' management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of Green Plains' management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
  • Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of Green Plains' stock. These opinions can provide insight into Green Plains' potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
It's essential to remember that evaluating Green Plains' stock performance is not an exact science, and many factors can impact Green Plains' stock market price. Therefore, it's also important to diversify your portfolio and not rely solely on one company or stock for your investments.

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When running Green Plains' price analysis, check to measure Green Plains' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Green Plains is operating at the current time. Most of Green Plains' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Green Plains' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Green Plains' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Green Plains to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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